THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM SRN MN/IA ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY TO MID/SERN ATLANTIC COAST AND CNTRL GULF STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FOR TODAY

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

TORNADO OUTLOOK 

WIND OUTLOOK 

HAIL OUTLOOK 

     DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0748 AM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012          VALID 011300Z - 021200Z          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT     FROM SRN MN/IA ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY TO MID/SERN ATLANTIC     COAST AND CNTRL GULF STATES...          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT     OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...          ...SYNOPSIS...          A HIGH-LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK WILL PERSIST...FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED     RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BRACKETED BY TROUGHS     OVER THE NERN PACIFIC/WRN CANADA/NWRN U.S. AND ERN CANADA/NERN     CONUS.  WITHIN THIS BROAD-SCALE PATTERN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER     THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN     REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECEDED BY A WEAKER IMPULSE MOVING FROM     WRN/CNTRL WY INTO ERN MT BY AFTERNOON.  FARTHER E...A SERIES OF     LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER GREAT     LAKES...UPPER MS VALLEY...AND MID MO VALLEY SEWD THROUGH THE OH     VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.          AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE OVER CNTRL MT WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD     INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY 02/12Z IN TANDEM WITH A PACIFIC FRONT     ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL LINK     WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER     MIDWEST.  THE ERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ASSUME MORE     COLD-FRONTAL PROPERTIES AS IT SETTLES SWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH     VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.  A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY     FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE     CAROLINAS AND GA.          ...CAROLINAS/GA...          12Z MHX/CHS/JAX SOUNDINGS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC     ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF     16-20 G/KG BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML /I.E. 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF     9.0-9.5 C PER KM/...YIELDING MUCAPE OF 4000-6500 J/KG.  LATEST     CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER     CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT LEE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE     BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN     A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF     25-35 KT.  GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY FORECAST...SUFFICIENT SHEAR     WILL EXIST FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE     HAIL.  MERGING STORM-SCALE COLD POOLS MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH OF     STORMS INTO CLUSTERS WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS     THROUGH THIS EVENING.          ...AL/MS...          12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN OVERLAP OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE     RATES...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW ON     SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED     STRONG-SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS     WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN COALESCE INTO     CLUSTERS AND ORGANIZE A COLD POOL.          ...MN/IA THROUGH OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS...          A COUPLE OF ELEVATED TSTM COMPLEXES ARE ONGOING AS OF 12Z INVOF     WARM/STATIONARY FRONT...ONE OVER NERN MO/SERN IA/W-CNTRL IL AND THE     OTHER ACROSS SERN IND/SWRN OH/NERN KY.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK     MIDLEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW REGIME     APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY MECHANISM FORCING THESE STORMS.  WHILE IT     REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER EITHER OF THESE COMPLEXES WILL     PERSIST...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE TSTM     COMPLEXES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO     EVENING.  REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL     FLOW AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A     MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD COMPENSATE WITH THE     POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING BOWING STRUCTURES WITH     A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.          ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...          FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MENTIONED IN SYNOPSIS ARE     EXPECTED TO GIVE RISE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING     FROM PACIFIC FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH CNTRL/SWRN MT EWD TO VICINITY     OF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT OVER ERN MT INTO     THE WRN DAKOTAS.  THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN     LIMITED...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO     MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG OVER CNTRL MT TO 1500-2500 J/KG NEAR SURFACE     LOW AND WARM FRONT IN SERN MT AND NWRN SD.  WHEN COUPLED WITH A     VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK     SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AS THE     INITIAL STORM MODE WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.      STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS TONIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR     DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL SPREADING EWD INTO ND.          ..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 07/01/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1254Z (7:54AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME