THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN ND/FAR NERN SD INTO UPR GRTLKS

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK

TORNADO OUTLOOK 

WIND OUTLOOK

HAIL OUTLOOK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 AM CDT MON JUL 02 2012
   
   VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN ND/FAR NERN SD INTO UPR
   GRTLKS...
   
   ...ERN ND/FAR NERN SD INTO UPR GRTLKS...
   LATE MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF LWR 70F SFC DEW POINTS
   SITUATED BENEATH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7-9 DEG C PER KM FROM ERN
   ND SEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY.  UNINHIBITED AFTN HEATING WILL
   THEREFORE SET THE STAGE FOR MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000-4000
   J/KG.  
   
   ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AMONG DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
   AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...THE ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER OF
   CNTRL/NRN ND SHOULD CONTINUE EWD TOWARD NRN MN THROUGH MID-AFTN.  AS
   DOWNSTREAM INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STORMS SHOULD BECOME
   MORE SFC-BASED.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF
   LAPSE RATES SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.  EVENTUALLY...AS COLD POOLS
   CONGLOMERATE...A BOW ECHO MAY EVOLVE AND ACCELERATE ESE ACROSS NRN
   AND CNTRL PARTS OF MN BY EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
   SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.  IF THE MODE INDEED DEVELOPS IN THIS
   MANNER...STORMS COULD REACH PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN WI AND UPR MI BY LATE
   THIS EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SIGNIFICANT DMGG WIND GUSTS. 
   IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
   COULD BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER D1 UPDATES.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN SD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL BE PSBL ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH
   ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.  HERE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN POINTS FARTHER N. 
   HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.  
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   THIS MORNINGS UPR AIR ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE
   LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERE HAS COOLED SINCE LAST EVE AS EXTENSIVE MCS
   CLUSTERS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION.  STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
   WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG/W OF A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY FROM
   PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH SEWD INTO AL/WRN FL PNHDL.  IN THIS
   REGION...ERN FRINGE OF A STRONG EML STILL EXISTS AMIDST PWAT VALUES
   OF 1.8 INCHES. AS A RESULT...ANY STRONGER CORE THAT EVOLVES MAY
   PRODUCE A MICROBURST OR SOME HAIL.
   
   ..RACY/GARNER.. 07/02/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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