THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NORTHEAST ORE/SOUTHEAST WA TO PORTIONS OF ID FOR TOMORROW

Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 131728
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NORTHEAST ORE/SOUTHEAST
   WA TO PORTIONS OF ID...
   
   ...WA/EASTERN ORE/ID/WESTERN MT...
   CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
   TO EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE OVER NORTHERN ORE ON
   SATURDAY AS LARGE SCALE PHASING OCCURS WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
   CONSOLIDATED LONGWAVE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW /AND
   ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/...MODERATE DIURNALLY-AIDED
   DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WA/NORTHERN ORE INTO
   ID/WESTERN MT...WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON IN MOST
   AREAS. AIDED BY A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES ON THE
   EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW /AND ASSOCIATED 35-50
   KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/...CURRENT THINKING IS THE MORE
   ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD OCCUR
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ORE AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST WA AND ID.
   SEVERE HAIL/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY ON
   SATURDAY...WHILE MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SURFACE
   TROUGH. WHILE OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MODEST AND VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE WEAK /15-25 KT 0-6 KM/...AFOREMENTIONED
   MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNALLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR SOME MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE
   AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST CONUS/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
   BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE/ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN NV
   AND UT ON SATURDAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT/OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
   TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/NORTHERN
   AZ INTO EASTERN NV/MUCH OF UT. EVEN WHILE CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER THE
   DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...A MODERATE BELT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
   WINDS ALOFT /ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW/ IMPLY THE
   POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUSTAINED STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE
   OF MICROBURSTS/SMALL HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/13/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1732Z (12:32PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME