Wednesday, July 4, 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EXTREME NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LAKE SUPERIOR



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 460 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

NORTHEAST MINNESOTA 
EXTREME NORTHWEST WISCONSIN 
LAKE SUPERIOR 

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL 
800 PM CDT. 

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST 
NORTHWEST OF HIBBING MINNESOTA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF 
SILVER BAY MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE 
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). 

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH 
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR 
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS 
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY 
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459... 

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS N CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY 
PERSIST AND MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THROUGH 
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG AND S OF THE 
BOUNDARY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS ERODING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 
THUS...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SWD ALONG 
THE GUST FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ONGOING STORMS. GIVEN THE STRONG 
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG/N OF THE FRONT...A MIX 
OF MULTICELL/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE STORM 
FORMATION...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGER 
BOWING SEGMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL 
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. 

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT 
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM 
MOTION VECTOR 29030. 

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