MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465, AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ORE...WRN/SWRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ORE...WRN/SWRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141957Z - 142130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF INTENSIFYING STORMS LIKELY THROUGH 22-00Z. THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO REQUIRE A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH...PERHAPS BY 21Z. DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD CORE MID-LEVEL LOW...WHICH MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN AXIS OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON INTO SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO. BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPE FOR THE DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROBABLY BECOMING MODERATELY LARGE IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS...AND SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 22-00Z. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN SHEARED 20+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...WHICH MAY STILL STRENGTHEN SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..KERR/CARBIN.. 07/14/2012 ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...PDT...MFR... LAT...LON 43261950 44071883 45011771 45291604 44691434 43931486 42681773 42341895 42511961 43261950