MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443, AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-SRN VA / CNTRL-ERN NC / NERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-SRN VA / CNTRL-ERN NC / NERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091736Z - 091830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLD DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FROM THE NRN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A FRONT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WITH A WIND SHIFT/TROUGH EXTENDING WSWWD FROM NERN NC INTO UPSTATE SC. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 90S-100 DEG F SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SC AND SERN NC. SEVERAL ZONES OF PREFERRED STORM INITIATION/GREATER STORM COVERAGE SEEM TO BE OVER 1) HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA AND LOCALES TO THE E 2) NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT OVER SERN VA AND NERN NC AND 3) WITHIN A BUILDING CU FIELD NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WIND SHIFT OVER CNTRL NC. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-30 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER/ RESIDES OVER VA TO THE N OF THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WLYS. STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELLS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF 40-50 KT WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FARTHER S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ONLY SUPPORT DISORGANIZED PULSE TSTMS. WATER LOADING PROCESSES WILL PROMOTE POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER WET MICROBURSTS.