MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391, AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY / VT / NH / SRN MAINE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY / VT / NH / SRN MAINE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 042048Z - 042145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLD-SCTD STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN QUEBEC AND INTENSE STORMS ARISING OUT OF A CU FIELD OVER THE REGION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND...SUPPORT FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG HEATING HAS YIELDED TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE PER RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 40 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.