DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 031727
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 03 2012
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH WHICH HAS MIGRATED INLAND ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE
   CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS INTO ALBERTA
   AND SASKATCHEWAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
   FEATURE WILL TURN EASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON
   WEDNESDAY...BUT VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT
   MAY SUPPRESS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...WHICH IS ALSO FORECAST TO BEGIN
   BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.  COINCIDING WITH
   THESE DEVELOPMENTS...VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MAY CONTINUE
   ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...ACROSS THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  CYCLONIC MID/UPPER
   FLOW LIKELY WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...AND IN
   ANOTHER WEAKER BELT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID
   ATLANTIC COAST...BUT THE AXIS OF LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
   APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COAST.
   
   
   ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
   STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE
   CANADIAN LOW PROBABLY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
   AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.  AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS BECOMING MORE
   UNCLEAR DUE TO THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF VERY WARM AND CAPPING ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER AIR.  IT IS RELATIVELY CERTAIN THAT STRONG POTENTIAL
   INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS...BENEATH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  HOWEVER...THE INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION
   PROBABLY WILL HINGE ON POSSIBLE PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
   MONSOONAL REGIME EMERGING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION...ON THE
   WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  WHILE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED STRONG/ SEVERE STORM CLUSTER STILL DOES
   NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TOO MUCH
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS... PARTICULARLY CONCERNING TIMING AND
   LOCATION...TO DELINEATE SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES WITHIN LARGER 5
   PERCENT RISK AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ...OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...
   THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY WEDNESDAY... PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LEE OF THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES.  SOME OF THESE SAME AREAS...HOWEVER... LIKELY WILL
   EXPERIENCE INCREASING INHIBITION...WITH UNCERTAIN FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION.  SCATTERED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL ARE STILL
   EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
   CONCERNING POTENTIAL CONCENTRATIONS OF ACTIVITY TO SUPPORT SLIGHT
   RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT
   SCATTERED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP SUB-CLOUD
   LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS SHOULD AT
   LEAST BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/03/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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