WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0933 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 181433Z - 181700Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT          SUMMARY...LONG-LIVED MCS SHOULD POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND AS     DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS     LARGELY SUGGEST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND MAY REMAIN ONLY     LOCALLY/MARGINALLY SEVERE.          DISCUSSION...STRONG MEASURED WIND GUSTS WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE     REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF     SHORT-LINE SEGMENT /NOW FROM SAGINAW TO BARRY COUNTIES/.     HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH THIS MCS AND     LITTLE INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW WAS NOTED IN THE GRR VWP DATA     AFTER PASSAGE OF THE LINE. WHILE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY IS     LIMITED PER MODIFIED 12Z DTX RAOB... CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO BE     RENEWED ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE SEGMENT AS IT INTERCEPTS THE     FRINGE OF MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS SUGGESTS OVERALL     ORIENTATION MAY BECOME MORE W/E WITH TIME AND MITIGATE A MORE ROBUST     INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.          ..GRAMS/HART.. 06/18/2012               ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...          LAT...LON   43428406 43538357 43228237 42498243 41618342 41448428                 41948533 42348531 42838444 43428406