[UPDATED]THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA FOR TODAY

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

TORNADO OUTLOOK 

WIND OUTLOOK 

HAIL OUTLOOK 

     DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1125 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012          VALID 271630Z - 281200Z          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN MN....          ...NRN/CNTRL MN...     WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN     THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE     PROVINCES THROUGH TONIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD...WEAK MID LEVEL     HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NRN MN WITH THE BULK OF THE     DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINING NORTH OF THE     US/CANADA BORDER.  12Z REGIONAL RAOBS INDICATED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF     VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C ASSOCIATED WITH AN     EML/CAPPING INVERSION THAT HAS SPREAD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND     TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT     SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS     VALLEY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE MN     AREA.            MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELIHOOD     OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT OVER NRN/CNTRL MN LATER     THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE     RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS A     CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT     DEVELOP.  RELATIVE PROXIMITY OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW SUGGESTS THE     PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE NRN MN     BORDER...AND HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THIS REGION     WITH LOWER /5%/ HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITY VALUES SWD INTO CENTRAL     MN.          ...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS       A RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN WATER     VAPOR IMAGERY AND SOUNDER/GPS PW DATA FROM SERN AZ INTO THE CENTRAL     ROCKIES WHERE SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING THIS     MORNING.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE     HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL CO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY IS     EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE     THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD     OVER THE AREA.  SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 25-30 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO     SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO FORM.      SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE     PRESENCE OF A DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.            ...SRN FL...     IN THE WAKE OF TD DEBBY NOW OFF THE NERN FL COAST...WSWLY DEEP LAYER     WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN RAOB AND LOCAL VAD PROFILES OVER SRN FL.  12Z     MFL RAOB EXHIBITED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED HEATING SOUTH     OF A BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG A FMY-PBI LINE MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT     OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL     DRYING AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODERATELY STRONG     UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND     GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS INTO THE EVENING.          ..WEISS/LEITMAN.. 06/27/2012          CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT       NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1631Z (11:31AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME