CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IA...NRN IL AND FAR NW IND... ...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE SCNTRL US. A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING BUT ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM NRN NEB EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA...SRN WI AND INTO LOWER MI. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE CONVECTION IN MANY AREAS COULD STRUGGLE DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/FRI ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL IA EWD TO NRN IL SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS WITH MLCAPE FROM 4000 TO 5000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE DES MOINES AND CHICAGO AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK KEEPING STORM COVERAGE ISOLATED. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM FAR NE CO INTO CNTRL NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH MULTICELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN SPITE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT. ..BROYLES.. 06/27/2012 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1048Z (5:48AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 
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