THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

TORNADO OUTLOOK 

WIND OUTLOOK 

HAIL OUTLOOK 

     DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0742 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012          VALID 211300Z - 221200Z          ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...          ...OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS TODAY...     A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING     WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN     ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE     OH VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND SWD ACROSS OK/NW TX.      AN AREA OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL MO TO NRN OK WILL PERSIST     THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TENDING TO LIMIT     INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT...WHERE     VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK.  FARTHER NE INTO THE OH     VALLEY...FEWER CLOUDS AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT     AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT.      DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER     WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THUS...A MARGINAL RISK     OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS A RESULT OF STEEP     LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF ROUGHLY 30 KT     LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION.          ...SOUTH PLAINS INTO E/NE NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...     A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG AND N OF A     COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOW ITS SWD MOVEMENT TODAY.  12Z SOUNDINGS     FROM AMA/MAF/ABQ REVEAL A LITTLE MORE BUOYANCY THAN FORECAST IN THE     06Z OPERATIONAL RUNS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO     SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THIS     AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MULTICELL STORMS.  HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE     MAY REMAIN RATHER SPARSE SINCE HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE     SRN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.          ...SW MAINE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...     A N-S BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY ACROSS SW MAINE...WITH     A WARM/SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE W OF THE BOUNDARY.  OTHER     THAN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ITSELF...THERE ARE NO CLEAR SOURCES FOR     ASCENT TODAY ACROSS THIS AREA...IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE.     THOUGH A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ANY     STORM ALONG THE FRONT...THE UNCONDITIONAL RISK IS TOO SMALL TO     WARRANT INCLUSION OF PROBABILITIES.          ..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 06/21/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1308Z (8:08AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME