STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND IN CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TOMORROW

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK 

     DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012          VALID 271200Z - 281200Z          ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...          ...SYNOPSIS...          LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME QUITE HOSTILE FOR SEVERE ORGANIZED     DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER     ANTICYCLONE HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS.  AROUND THE     PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT     ACROSS SK/AB WITH GLANCING HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS ND INTO NRN     MN.  ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA IN     ASSOCIATION WITH REMNANTS OF DEBBY.          ...UPPER MS VALLEY...          PER ABOVE REASONING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP     ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS VERY WARM EML AND A STOUT     CAP WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN FACT THE     NAM SUGGESTS 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 18C TO 46N WHICH IN THE     ABSENCE OF MID LEVEL COOLING WOULD REQUIRE SFC TEMPERATURES NEAR     110F TO BREAK THE CAP.  THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THIS SORT     OF WARMING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN AND HAVE ADJUSTED     THE SRN EDGE OF THUNDER NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CAP.  AS THE CANADIAN     SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO MB MID LEVELS WILL COOL SUCH THAT     FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IT/S NOT     ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVEN BE ROOTED IN THE     BOUNDARY LAYER BUT POSSIBLY WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.      GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE     GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO     MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL MN INTO THE     ARROWHEAD.          ...FL PENINSULA...          REMNANTS OF DEBBY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN FL     PENINSULA WEDNESDAY.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN FAVORABLE     FOR STORM ROTATION AS THIS LOW TRANSLATES EWD.  IN THE ABSENCE OF     STEEP LAPSE RATES THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOR BRIEF AND MOST     LIKELY WEAK TORNADOES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW.          ...ELSEWHERE...          SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE     SWRN U.S. FROM NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION     INTO WRN PORTIONS OF NEB.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNAL IN     NATURE AND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK.          ANOTHER AREA WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WILL BE ACROSS     PARTS OF SCNTRL INTO FAR WEST TX.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A     VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE WWD WITHIN ELY FLOW REGIME     ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR CONVECTION THAT WOULD MIGRATE TOWARD THE     HIGHER TERRAIN.  GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IF     THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.  WILL     NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY     REGARDING COVERAGE.          ..DARROW.. 06/26/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1802Z (1:02PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME