MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0353 PM CDT SAT JUN 09 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY           VALID 092053Z - 092230Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT          SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS     OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.      UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING HOW SOON...BUT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS     23-00Z.          DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SLOWLY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE     DEVELOPMENT ARE EVIDENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT     TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM A DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH     CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF     THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES     AND LARGE CAPE /MIXED LAYER ON THE ORDER OF 2500+ J PER KG/.      SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION PERSISTS...BUT LATEST RAPID REFRESH     SUGGESTS SUBTLE SIGNS OF AT LEAST AREAS OF WEAKENING...PARTICULARLY     NEAR THE LOW CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE     SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW     HOURS.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WARM SECTOR SHEAR...POTENTIAL     EXISTS FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF     ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ONCE CAPPING IS BROKEN.      THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 23-00Z...WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF     PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL.  TORNADOES ARE ALSO     POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BECOME LARGE     AND CLOCKWISE CURVED NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE.          ..KERR/MEAD.. 06/09/2012               ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...