MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN MT CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 355... VALID 050222Z - 050345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 355 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...PRIMARY NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT EXISTS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN A TSTM CLUSTER CENTERED OVER CHOUTEAU COUNTY. MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION FOR ITS POTENTIAL AFFECT ON PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...INTENSE TSTM CLUSTER CENTERED OVER CHOUTEAU COUNTY HAS HAD A HISTORY OF REPORTED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TORNADIC THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IT BEGINS TO INGEST UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS AMIDST ENLARGING CYCLONIC HODOGRAPHS. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION WILL TAKE THIS CELL E/NEWD...THAT IF MAINTAINED...MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF NERN MT PRIOR TO MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN. FARTHER SE...CONVECTION ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN MT COULD INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE UPPER MO VALLEY. BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND WITH STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINING FARTHER WEST...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS SCENARIO WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL OVER MOST OF ERN MT. ..GRAMS.. 06/05/2012 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... "INFORMS YOU ON WEATHER" THIS BLOG WILL INFORM ON WEATHER MOSTLY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ALSO MOST AREAS DURRING SEVERE WEATHER.
Monday, June 4, 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1064
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