MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...FAR SERN MO...WRN KY...PORTIONS OF NRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353... VALID 042327Z - 050100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...WHILE STORMS HAVE SHOWED SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE LAST HOUR...AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO SRN IL/FAR SERN MO/WRN KY AND PORTIONS OF FAR NRN TN. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA HAVE GENERALLY WEAKENED. A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS LED TO ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SEVERE STORM STATUS AS CONVECTION TRACKS SEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND JUST SOUTH OF A SFC WIND SHIFT/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS STORMS CONTINUE SEWD...A TREND OF WEAKENING WITH INTERMITTENT STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE AS AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THIS IS EVIDENT BY CUMULUS ON VIS SAT ACROSS SWRN KY INTO NRN TN AND SERN MO. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. ..LEITMAN.. 06/04/2012 ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX... LAT...LON 38279087 38519000 38378844 38218781 37448665 36258604 36018621 35878780 36048874 36238939 37319045 38279087
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