MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 292022Z - 292115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE SOME ACROSS NRN VA. STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. A WW IS BEING COORDINATED. DISCUSSION...WITH BROADER HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE 18Z IAD SOUNDING INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG SBCAPE HAS DEVELOPED AMIDST A MOIST AIR MASS AND AMPLE SURFACE HEATING. WINDS ALOFT ARE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN SOME /NOW 30 KTS PER PROFILER DATA/ IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND MAY SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED CELLS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS. ..HURLBUT/WEISS.. 05/29/2012 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...
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