MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1056 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY           VALID 291556Z - 291700Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT          SUMMARY...GIVEN THE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE     THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...A WW IS BEING COORDINATED SHORTLY FOR ERN     NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW IS LIKELY     FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...A TORNADO WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR     THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD.          DISCUSSION...WITH STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ADDITIONAL     DEVELOPMENT LIKELY LATER TODAY...A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. SEVERAL     AREAS OF NEW INITIATION REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING ALONG THE     PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER ERN NY...AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY     ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY     UNSTABLE AND NO LONGER CAPPED...NEW INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE     DELAYED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL     AND FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHES THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL     BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A PREDOMINANT THREAT OF DMGG WINDS IS     EXPECTED...GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET /25-30 KT 850 MB     JET BY THIS AFTERNOON/ AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH     BACKED SLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 70S DEW     POINTS...ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY     DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF     CONVECTION.          ..HURLBUT/WEISS.. 05/29/2012               ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...