DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK 

   SPC AC 290730          DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0230 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012          VALID 311200Z - 011200Z          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF EAST TX/ARKLATEX TO THE     TN/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS...          ...SYNOPSIS...     A CONSIDERABLE LATE MAY UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TO A     DEGREE/OTHERWISE SPREAD EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS     ON THURSDAY. WHILE UNCERTAIN MESOSCALE/FORECAST DETAILS ARE     CONSIDERABLE FACTORS BY THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA     OF AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST AHEAD OF AN     EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT     AS BELOW.          ...MUCH OF TX/ARKLATEX TO TN/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS...     SEVERAL FACTORS OF UNCERTAINTY LEAD TO A BROAD CATEGORICAL SLIGHT     RISK ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SUBSEQUENT REFINEMENT WILL BE NEEDED AND     POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY ULTIMATELY BE     WARRANTED. FIRST...ITS READILY PLAUSIBLE THAT AN MCS/REMNANTS     THEREOF WILL BE AN EARLY DAY FACTOR COME THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE     REGION. ON THE LARGE SCALE...SPREAD ALSO INCREASES AMONG 00Z-BASED     DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE/TIMING     OF UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION INTO THURSDAY...WITH ESPECIALLY THE     00Z ECMWF INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED LATER PERIOD AND FARTHER NORTH     /OHIO VALLEY/ SEVERE POTENTIAL IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOWER/FARTHER     WEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS.          REGARDLESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A POTENTIAL MCS/OUTFLOW     REMNANTS THEREOF WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO     PERHAPS EVEN THE ADJACENT MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. ODDS ARE     THAT POSSIBLE OUTFLOW/MCV INFLUENCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCING     FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT/REINVIGORATION WITHIN A     RELATIVELY BROAD MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARM     SECTOR ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS LOWER OH     VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL     WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A WEAKER     VERTICAL SHEAR BUT STRONGER BUOYANCY REGIME...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE     OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD     FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND CENTRAL/EAST TX THURSDAY     AFTERNOON/EVENING.          ...ELSEWHERE...     OTHER MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS     THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL AND/OR NEAR THE COLD FRONT/POST-FRONTAL     UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/BIG BEND VICINITY OF TX.          ..GUYER.. 05/29/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1459Z (9:59AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME