Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 165

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 165
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL KANSAS
          NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
   600 PM CDT.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
   GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER
   SOUTHWEST KS AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OK IN
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED. 
   HOWEVER...SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS BURN
   OFF...AIDING IN STORMS BECOMING SURFACE-BASED.  VERY FAVORABLE
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STRONG TORNADOES
   WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
   

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

High (70%)



Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

High (80%)



Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

High (80%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)