CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR TODAY

Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.    SPC AC 091248        DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK      NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK    0748 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012        VALID 091300Z - 101200Z        ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT    FOR WRN OK AND NW TX...        ...WRN OK/NW TX AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...    A DIFFUSE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN OK INTO SW KS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER    DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F REPRESENTATIVE OF THE TX/OK WARM SECTOR N OF    I-10.  ALOFT...THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR W TX NNWWD TO    THE NRN ROCKIES...THOUGH AN EMBEDDED/SUBTLE SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO    CREST THE RIDGE IN CO TODAY AND MOVE SEWD OVER OK TONIGHT.  DAYTIME    HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP CONSOLIDATE A DRYLINE ACROSS THE    CENTRAL/ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR    THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE DRYLINE/FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE    SUBTLE SPEED MAX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD    SEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK AND NW TX OVERNIGHT.        MODIFIED FORECAST AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE    VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG AS A RESULT OF THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE    BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KM.  MEANWHILE...VERTICAL    SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SSEWD-MOVING    SUPERCELLS WITH NWLY EFFECTIVE-BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT.  LOW-LEVEL    SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NW OK THIS    AFTERNOON...WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH COULD APPROACH 200 M2/S2.        THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO FORM AROUND 21Z NEAR THE    DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION AND THEN SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.     DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL    DEVELOPMENT...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A    COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...CONVECTION    WILL TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO...AIDED BY A 30 KT    SSWLY LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION.  THE RISK FOR AT LEAST    ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO    TONIGHT.        ...FAR W TX/SE NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...    BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 HAVE SPREAD WWD INTO    FAR W TX/SE NM.  THE 12Z EL PASO SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR    HIGH-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST E OF THE    HIGHER TERRAIN.  MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK    SHEAR NEAR 25 KT SUGGEST SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND    GUSTS.        ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 04/09/2012        NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z    CURRENT UTC TIME: 1333Z (8:33AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME