SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 81

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 81
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM UNTIL
500 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AS THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE RETREATING DRYLINE. STORMS ARE IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
AMPLE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT ALSO WITH CONSIDERABLE CAP. GIVEN
THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE FORCING AND THE STRENGTHENING CAP...BELIEVE
THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CAP STRENGTH AND STORM TRENDS FOR
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO RISK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...HART