MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0502 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IN...CNTRL IL...NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 152202Z - 160030Z
   
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THEN NEXT FEW
   HOURS...MAINLY OVER NRN IND INTO NWRN OH. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL IL
   INTO NRN IND...EXTENDING NEWD INTO SERN LOWER MI. THESE STORMS WERE
   ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SHIFTING EWD ACROSS
   MI...AND ORIENTED W-E WITHIN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
   
   THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS RATHER WEAK...AND
   FLOW IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL. THEREFORE...A LONG LIVED ORGANIZED
   SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER..THERMODYNAMICS ARE VERY
   FAVORABLE FOR PULSE OR MULTICELL SEVERE HAIL. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO PEAK BETWEEN NOW AND 01Z BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.