MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...

VALID 122229Z - 130000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES.

AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MOST SIGNIFICANT DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
...NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...WHERE THE AXIS OF STRONGEST PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING
NOSES INTO THE AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN /WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S. ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING...AND RAPIDLY
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITHIN 45-50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE 850 MB JET WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY IN EXCESS OF 50 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO
FURTHER ENLARGEMENT OF ALREADY SIZABLE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS. AND IT APPEARS THAT TORNADIC POTENTIAL COULD PEAK
ACROSS THE LANSING...JACKSON AND FLINT AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND 00-01Z.

..KERR.. 03/12/2012


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43968465 44408383 44148287 43258252 41968354 41558413
41438509 41578583 42448524 43968465