THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS FOR THE REST OF TODAY

Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 162003
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012
   
   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   PLAINS...
   
   UPGRADED PORTIONS OF NRN PLAINS TO SLIGHT RISK AS LATEST VIS IMAGERY
   AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSTMS WILL INITIATE IN THE
   20-23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE EWD IN VICINITY OF
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SD/EXTREME SERN ND. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
   IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.  SEE MCD 1476 FOR THE LATEST SHORT-TERM THINKING IN THIS
   AREA.
   
   OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS OUTLOOK APPEARS ON TRACK AND ONLY
   MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS WERE MADE.
   
   ..BUNTING.. 07/16/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012/
   
   ...NRN PLAINS ENE TO UPR GRTLKS REGION...
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1004 MB LOW OVER CNTRL SD WITH A WEAK
   FRONT EXTENDING ENE TO A SECOND LOW OVER NWRN MN.  ANTICIPATION IS
   FOR THE LATTER LOW TO DEVELOP TO THE UPR GRTLKS THROUGH TONIGHT
   WHILE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT REMAINS QSTNRY OVER CNTRL SD AND
   BLACK HILLS VCNTY.  
   
   STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG/S OF THE FRONT FROM CNTRL MN WSW
   INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION WHERE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF PWATS
   1.15-1.50 INCHES EXISTS PER GPS GOES SOUNDERS.  THIS IN COMBINATION
   WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD 1500-3000
   J/KG MLCAPE.  
   
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL AS IS THE DEEP
   LAYER FLOW AMIDST STRONG MLCINH. HOWEVER...STRONG DESTABILIZATION
   AND PERSISTENT LOCAL CONVERGENCE VCNTY THE FRONT AND BLACK HILLS MAY
   BE ENOUGH TO AID IN HIGH-BASED MULTICELL TSTM INITIATION THIS
   AFTN...MAINLY FROM SWRN TO CNTRL/NRN SD.  ISOLD DMGG WINDS/SVR HAIL
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS WITH COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOT EXPECTED
   TO NECESSITATE A SLGT RISK. 
   
   LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...CONGLOMERATING PORTIONS OF DAYTIME
   STORMS WILL BECOME INTERMIXED WITHIN NEW NOCTURNAL ELEVATED ACTIVITY
   THAT DEVELOPS WITHIN AN ACCELERATING SLY LLJ.  THIS LLJ WILL RESPOND
   TO THE MID-LVL WAVE EJECTING FROM SRN SK TOWARD THE UPR GRTLKS BY
   TUE MORNING.  THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH NRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE.
   
   ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
   MDT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN/NRN
   RCKYS...E OF THE UPR LOW DIGGING ALONG THE ORE COAST.  FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY LOCALLY
   ENHANCED BY AN UPR DISTURBANCE MOVING NNE FROM NRN NV.  
   
   SFC HEATING...TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT
   SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTN.  COUPLED WITH
   WEAK DEEP SHEAR...SETUP SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MULTICELLS WITH
   HAIL. LOCALLY DMGG WIND ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID
   LVL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ...MID-ATLC REGION...
   WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
   A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ACT ON VERY WARM/MOIST
   AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
   SIMULATIONS APPEAR TO SUGGEST GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
   WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC WHERE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AND
   SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS LATE IN THE DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE
   IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET MICROBURST WIND EVENTS.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 2015Z (3:15PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME