THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE ORE...SE WA...ID AND WRN MT FOR TODAY

Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 141957
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012
   
   VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE ORE...SE
   WA...ID AND WRN MT...
   
   A COUPLE OF CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z. THE FIRST
   IS TO ADD PARTS OF SCNTRL ID INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MODERATE
   INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WHERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT
   WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND CHANGE IS THE
   REMOVE PARTS OF CNTRL OH...NE OH AND ERN LOWER MI FROM THE 5 PERCENT
   WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES. THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE
   AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS MORE ISOLATED THAN WAS EXPECTED. IN WRN
   AR AND ERN OK...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SWWD INTO MODERATE
   TO STRONG INSTABILITY ANALYZED ACROSS SERN OK. AN ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL...SEE MCD 1464. OTHERWISE...THE OUTLOOK
   APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/14/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/
   
   ...INTERIOR NORTHWEST...
   COMPACT MID/UPPER VORTEX NOW OVER WRN ORE/WA IS FORECAST TO EJECT
   EAST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AS UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SWD
   ACROSS BC THROUGH TONIGHT. BELT OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW
   AROUND 30-40KT AND ASSOCIATED DCVA WILL SPREAD EAST INTO ERN ORE/WRN
   ID THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH MODEST AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
   /MLCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/. RESULTING STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO
   SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS NERN ORE AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO ID
   THROUGH THE EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGH WINDS.
   
   DESPITE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE DIVIDE...
   STRONG AND LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND SHOULD INCREASE OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS FORCING WITH THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH ACTS ON
   POCKETS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION FROM THE BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS
   ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MT. WARM FRONT DEVELOPING EAST OF LEE CYCLONE MAY
   ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LOWER
   PROBABILITY CHANCE OF A HAIL/WIND ACROSS ERN MT.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST NORTH ACROSS GREAT BASIN...
   EXTENSIVE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE PLUME WAS CO-LOCATED WITH A BAND OF
   20-30KT SLY FLOW FROM AZ TO UT/WY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRACKING NWD
   IN THIS BAND OF STRONGER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER
   DIURNAL HEATING AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONGER
   STORMS WITH POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   INTO THE EVENING.
   
   ...IA/WI ACROSS MIDWEST...
   WIND SHIFT AXIS AND WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD MID/UPPER
   MOVING EAST OVER IA/WI TODAY WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. MEAGER SHEAR AND WEAK MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SHOULD ACT TO TEMPER STORM INTENSITY/LONGEVITY BUT
   BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...INCLUDING LAKE BREEZES...COULD LOCALLY BOOST
   STORM UPDRAFT POTENTIAL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A COUPLE OF ROGUE WIND/HAIL
   EVENTS.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
   EXTENSIVE SW TO NE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WAS SITUATED FROM THE
   SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY. WHILE
   LIFT WITHIN THIS ZONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK...VERY MOIST AND
   WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED TO
   NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE CORRIDOR.
   GENERALLY WEAKER FLOW/SHEAR WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE SHEAR
   AXIS WHERE AREAS OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO OR ATOP A HOT
   BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
   ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE SHEAR AXIS...A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONGER
   SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND HIGHER PW AIRMASS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW
   MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS WITH SOME CHANCE OF WET MICROBURSTS.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 2002Z (3:02PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME