THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES FOR TODAY

Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 131633
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012
   
   VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES...
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS...
   WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST THIS PERIOD. WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL ACT ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED
   TSTM COVERAGE FROM MN AND IA SWD AND WWD TO MO AND KS. WITH MID
   LEVEL FLOW NO STRONGER THAN ABOUT 25KT ACROSS THESE
   AREAS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
   HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IS
   INDICATED IN SOME GUIDANCE ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AXIS FROM IA INTO MN
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS CORRIDOR
   COULD POSE SOME THREAT OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...STRONG HEATING AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER TO THE SOUTH OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS MO AND KS MAY
   SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
   LATER TODAY.
   
   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NRN ROCKIES...
   POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO MAY EVOLVE OVER THESE AREAS LATER
   TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY INTENSE MID LEVEL
   VORTEX SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WRN WA WHERE COLD AIR
   ALOFT AND ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AMIDST
   GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR. TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE
   DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND COULD PRODUCE HAIL.
   
   A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...PERHAPS SUPERCELLS...MAY
   DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...FROM ERN WA ACROSS NRN ID AND
   INTO NWRN MT LATER TODAY. THESE LOCATIONS WILL RESIDE BENEATH A BELT
   OF STRONGER SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP A PLUME OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE MAINTAINED BY ELY/NELY FLOW. SUFFICIENT HEATING IS LIKELY
   WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
   DESTABILIZATION WITH WEAKLY CAPPED SBCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG LIKELY.
   GIVEN PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS IN THE
   UPDRAFT LAYER...ANY STORMS INITIATING IN THIS AREA WILL ACQUIRE
   ROTATION AND POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.
   ONE SIGNIFICANT LIMITATION HOWEVER... IS LACK OF STRONGER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW TO
   THE WEST AND WEAKER LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING NWD
   AROUND THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE AXIS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY
   LITTLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST INSTABILITY DURING
   THE DAY. HOWEVER..STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR MORE LIKELY DURING
   THE EVENING AND TONIGHT AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL PROVE SEVERE
   WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN...
   MONSOON MOIST AXIS AND STRONG HEATING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN
   U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW WITH POCKETS OF SOMEWHAT
   STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOMEWHAT GREATER STORM
   ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE IN SOME AREAS BUT THE BULK OF THIS
   CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE PULSE TO MULTICELL IN NATURE AND SEVERE
   EVENTS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED.
   
   ...TX...
   BELT OF 20-25KT NLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF WEAK UPPER
   TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A WEAKLY ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER
   OF STORMS TO EVOLVE FROM THE ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS ERN TX
   THIS MORNING. DOWNSTREAM HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS
   AND HAVE ADDED A SMALL 5 PERCENT SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY TO ACCOUNT
   FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
   
   ..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 07/13/2012
   
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