Wednesday, July 4, 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN LAKE ERIE LAKE HURON EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 462 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
445 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012 


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 


CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN 
LAKE ERIE 
LAKE HURON 


EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL 
1000 PM EDT. 


HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. 


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST 
OF LANSING MICHIGAN TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS 
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE 
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). 


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH 
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR 
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS 
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY 
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 460...WW 461... 


DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A CONFLUENCE BAND 
ACROSS CENTRAL/SE LOWER MI...WHERE A HOT/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS 
IMPINGES ON THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...A SUBTLE MIDLEVEL SPEED 
MAX IS MOVING SEWD OVER NRN LOWER MI. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY 
AND MODEST NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT...THERE WILL BE THE 
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH LATE EVENING. 


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT 
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM 
MOTION VECTOR 31030. 

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