MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550, AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA INTO MUCH OF NY...VT...WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1132 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA INTO MUCH OF NY...VT...WRN MA/CT          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE           VALID 231632Z - 231800Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT          SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE     AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.          DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE     REGION...WHERE STRONG HEATING WAS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE CU WAS     FOCUSED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NY INTO     CNTRL/ERN PA. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIN HAS BEEN     DIMINISHED AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG EXISTS WITH DECENT     PARCEL ACCELERATION THROUGH THE PROFILE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE     CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AS     WELL AS MARGINAL SHEAR...SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME     SEVERE...WITH LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS MARGINAL HAIL.          ..JEWELL/HART.. 07/23/2012               ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...          LAT...LON   42397287 41207319 40567359 40517424 40607622 41097720                 41817741 42387712 43307675 44207622 44997508 45037201                 44467216 43277266 42397287