MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475, AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 161658Z - 161800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NC/SC...WITH ADDITIONAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS. DISCUSSION...CU FIELD HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED ACROSS CNTRL NC/SC ALONG A WEAK THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. HI-RES CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...PROGRESSING SEWD AMIDST WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.7-2.0 INCH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S F...A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN ATTENDANT TO DIURNAL HEATING. ..HURLBUT/CARBIN.. 07/16/2012 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34487949 33768083 33708160 34408144 35108002 35717762 36097630 35747599 34897753 34487949