MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464, AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL AR...ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL AR...ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 141946Z - 142045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLD DMGG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS PROGRESSES SWWD. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. DISCUSSION...A POORLY/LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN AR/E CNTRL OK...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A REMNANT WEAK VORT MAX AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. SUFFICIENT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN ADVANCE OF THE CLUSTER...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOB 8.5 C/KM PER MESOANALYSIS/ AND MODEST NLY FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY LEADING TO COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND CONTRIBUTING TO A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY ACROSS NERN OK/NWRN AR. A PEAK WIND AT FT SMITH AT 1848Z RECORDED A 41 MPH WIND GUST...SUGGESTING MARGINAL TO NEAR-SEVERE WINDS WITH THE ONGOING CLUSTER ATTM. ..HURLBUT/CARBIN.. 07/14/2012 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35209698 35989680 36089638 35739523 35439429 35019406 34509442 34229515 34069616 34339680 34759693 35209698