MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461, AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...SE KS AND SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...SE KS AND SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 131951Z - 132115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SW MO...SE KS AND NE OK THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD BE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM CNTRL MO SWWD TO NEAR INDEPENDENCE KANSAS ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG A THERMAL AXIS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 90S F AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION PULSE IN NATURE WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS BRIEF IN DURATION. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE PULSE STORM CORES. ..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 07/13/2012