MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451, AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT...NWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0536 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT...NWRN ND          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 112236Z - 112330Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT          SUMMARY...ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST     ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND NWRN ND THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED     TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.          DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE INITIATED AMIDST NUMEROUS MESOSCALE     BOUNDARIES AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER SRN SK. LOW     LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS LIMITED WITH MOST SURFACE OBS IN     THE DISCUSSION AREA DEPICTING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND DEWPOINT     DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 35 DEG F. RUC-BASED MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY     MODEST INSTABILITY -- I.E. MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG -- AND EFFECTIVE     BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. 12Z GGW SOUNDING MODIFIED WITH LATEST     SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MLLCL     HEIGHTS ABOVE 10 KFT. MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW INSTABILITY     SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES     SUGGESTS MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT     DO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN ND. GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED     BOUNDARY LAYER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...THE PRIMARY     SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SEVERE HAIL     IS POSSIBLE. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT     ANTICIPATED.          ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 07/11/2012               ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...          LAT...LON   48440711 48820632 48990462 48950308 48070254 46890296                 46920641 48440711