MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TN/FAR NORTH AL/FAR NORTH GA TO WESTERN
CAROLINAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091701Z - 091830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN TN AND FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF AL/GA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS A DEEPENING CUMULUS
FIELD INCLUDING SOME INCIPIENT TSTMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
GENERALLY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND IN VICINITY
OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS WSW-ENE FROM ALONG THE AL/GA/TN
BORDER VICINITY INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
VERTICAL SHEAR ARE WEAK PER 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND MORE
CONTEMPORARY WSR-88D VWP DATA. HOWEVER...A MOIST AIRMASS /AROUND 70F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/MODERATE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION...IN ADDITION TO AMPLE
DRY AIR ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGEST THAT
DOWNBURSTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.
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