MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT SAT JUL 07 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071905Z - 072030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL MO THIS AFTERNOON.
RANDOM/PULSE AND GENERALLY SHORT-TERM NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION MAKE
WATCH ISSUANCE UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BREACHED ACROSS SRN AND
CNTRL MO THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS ENSUED. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE N-S BAND OF GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS TIED TO
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF A WWD MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. PULSE STORMS AND OCCASIONAL STORM/OUTFLOW MERGERS ARE DRIFTING
WEST TOWARD AN AXIS WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100F. THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY LOCALIZED AND BRIEF DOWNBURST
WIND THREAT WHEN STRONGER CELLS COLLAPSE AND/OR MERGE. GREATER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND/OR UPSCALE GROWTH CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN
WEAK FORCING AND FLOW. FURTHERMORE...THE RANDOM/BRIEF AND ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE DOWNBURST WIND THREAT PRECLUDES A WATCH IN THIS AREA.
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