MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT SAT JUL 07 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071819Z - 071945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON. WW IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A CUMULUS
FIELD DEEPENING FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CNTRL KS...WITH SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES RECENTLY NOTED E OF DDC. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME
PROBABLE AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR
100F. THIS HEATING IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
PROFILES. THOUGH BUOYANCY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL EXIST GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
..GARNER/WEISS.. 07/07/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...
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