MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...FAR NRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...
VALID 041725Z - 041900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ESEWD
ACROSS NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
NRN MN AS THE CONVECTION APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF WW 459 OVER THE
NEXT HALF HOUR.
DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN NW MN
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF A INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND ON THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS
NRN MN INTO NRN WI ALONG WHICH THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRACK THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
ALONG WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF THE LINE CAN DEVELOP A COLD
POOL. A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CORES
BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/04/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
No comments:
Post a Comment