MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 AM CDT TUE JUL 03 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH...NW PA...WV PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031420Z - 031545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE CLEVELAND
AREA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS NE OH LATER THIS MORNING. THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...A SHORT LINE SEGMENT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING AT THE WRN
END OF LAKE ERIE AND IS LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN
THE VICINITY OF CLEVELAND. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT
CLEVELAND SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF
FLOW AT 1 KM. THIS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 80S F ACROSS NE OH WILL LIKELY HELP THE
LINE PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING. THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED.
..BROYLES/RACY.. 07/03/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
No comments:
Post a Comment