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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FL...GA...AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488... VALID 171945Z - 172115Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS PULSE AND MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WAS BEING DRIVEN BY ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTIVE BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WWD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ACTIVITY IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER MEAN WIND OF 10-15 KT AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. RECENT STORM AND OUTFLOW MERGERS AROUND THE TLH AREA HAVE POSSIBLY PRODUCED LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SOME CELLS SHOW A BRIEF INCREASE IN INTENSITY WHILE OTHERS UNDERGO DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE AND COLLAPSE. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON TLH AND...IN ADDITION TO DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION...TORRENTIAL RAINS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WIDESPREAD AIRMASS OVERTURNING AND LACK OF GREATER FORCING AND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO RESULT IN GENERAL DEMISE TO THE SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS BEEN LESS ACROSS NRN AREAS OF THE WATCH AND MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL GA AND ERN AL MAY DRIFT INTO THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/17/2012 ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32288447 31718514 31618613 30998618 30948638 30098650 29688573 29718322 29698298 30298276 30588271 30548223 30758215 30798238 31048240 31028216 31898217 32338225 32158289 32468314 32398346 32178421 32288447 |
"INFORMS YOU ON WEATHER" THIS BLOG WILL INFORM ON WEATHER MOSTLY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ALSO MOST AREAS DURRING SEVERE WEATHER.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488 FOR FL...GA...AL
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