MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 181738Z - 181845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE ACROSS SERN MI WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AS IT MOVES THROUGH N-CNTRL OH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION/STRENGTHENING. DISCUSSION...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING SE ACROSS SERN MI WILL MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS N-CNTRL OH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 20 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR N-CNTRL OH SEPARATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINT IN THE UPPER 60S FROM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AID IN STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. ONE CONDITION NOT FAVORING A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT IS THAT THE CURRENT LINE OF TSTMS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISLOCATED FROM THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /WHICH REMAINS TO THE NW ACROSS MI/...REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE WIND THREAT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION/STRENGTHENING. ..MOSIER/HART.. 06/18/2012 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 42298366 42148241 41448108 40638089 40188193 40448322 41078413 42298366
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