CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
TORNADO OUTLOOK
WIND OUTLOOK
HAIL OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WI AND MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SD...SWRN MN AND EXTREME NRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTAL OH... HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK OVER NRN/CENTRAL OH FOR ON-GOING CLUSTER OF STG/SVR STORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTN/EARLY EVENING. MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT COMBINED WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT MOVES E/SEWD. ADDED 5 PERCENT SVR WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS S TX WHERE COMBINATION OF WEAK SWWD PROPAGATING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN. REF MCD #1208 FOR THE LATEST SHORT-TERM TRENDS FOR ON-GOING SVR TSTMS OVER WI. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR REMAINDER OF CONUS. ..BUNTING.. 06/18/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/ ...WI/MI... A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT TODAY OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE PRIMARY BAND OF WESTERLIES ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA/MN. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WI/UPPER MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY AN OVERNIGHT MCS NOW OVER LOWER MI. HOWEVER...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS WI WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW INTO THE RHI AREA. CLOUDS WILL SLOW HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION IN THIS REGION...BUT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 2000 J/KG WITH ONLY WEAK CAPPING REMAINING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI AS THE TAIL-END OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTS THE REGION. MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF UPPER MI AND LAKE MI DURING THE EVENING. AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS LESS CERTAIN FARTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI SO WILL NOT EXTEND HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO THIS AREA AT THIS TIME. ...SD/MN TONIGHT... MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SD AND NORTHERN NEB...LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE CAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ...OH VALLEY... A PLUME OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. BROKEN CLOUDS WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...BUT ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 2011Z (3:11PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 
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