CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
TORNADO OUTLOOK
WIND OUTLOOK
HAIL OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MN... ...SYNOPSIS... EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN AXIS HOLDING STNRY FROM THE SRN RCKYS THROUGH THE CNTRL PLNS TO THE MID MS VLY. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT CROSSED THE NRN HIGH PLNS YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE NE INTO MB...TRAILED BY A WEAKER FEATURE NOW IN WRN MT. FARTHER S...SATELLITE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A SERIES OF EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCES EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE UPR MS VLY...IN BAND OF ENHANCED FLOW ON NW FLANK OF UPR RIDGE. FARTHER S...T.D. DEBBY EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ABSORBED WITHIN WLY FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF NERN STATES UPR LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY E OR ENEWD PER NHC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROUGH OVER CANADA. WHILE THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN MN...WARM MID LVL TEMPS AND ABSENCE OF STRONG MID/UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/SUSTENANCE FARTHER S. OTHERWISE...TSTMS SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN MID LVL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS. ...NRN/CNTRL MN THIS AFTN/EVE... DESPITE CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW TO REGION...STRONG EML CAP /WELL-DEPICTED IN THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING/ SHOULD PROHIBIT SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG MUCH OF COLD FRONT OVER THE UPR MS VLY TODAY. BUT BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THU...NRN/CNTRL MN WILL BE BRUSHED BY HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPR SYSTEM CONTINUING NE INTO MB. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF MID LVL MOISTURE FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS...SETUP MAY SUPPORT ISOLD STORMS NEAR/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. IF/WHEN STORMS FORM...DEEP EML WILL YIELD AMPLE BUOYANCY FOR HAIL/DMGG WIND GIVEN 40+ KT SSWLY DEEP SHEAR. ...CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE... TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITH SFC HEATING OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS TODAY...BENEATH BAND OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE/WEAK ASCENT ON NW FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE. DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR FARTHER E/NE INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLNS...WHERE LOW LVL ASCENT WILL FOCUS ALONG/BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. MODEST WIND FIELD... INVERTED-V THERMAL ENVIRONMENT...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE MAY YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND THROUGH EARLY TNGT. ...S FL TODAY... MODERATE...MOIST WSWLY LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER S FL TODAY AS T.D. DEBBY CONTINUES E TO ENE OFF THE NE FL CST. WHILE POCKETS OF SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR...DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM MID LVL TEMPS /AROUND MINUS 4 C AT 500 MB/. COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...SOMEWHAT ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG THE SE CST...WHERE TRAILING CONFLUENCE BAND OF DEBBY WILL INTERSECT E CST SEA BREEZE FRONT. IF ANY SUSTAINED STORMS DO FORM...A BRIEF/LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN RESIDUAL BAND OF HIGH PW PRESENT OVER REGION. ..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 06/27/2012 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1311Z (8:11AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 
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