THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

TORNADO OUTLOOK 

WIND OUTLOOK 

HAIL OUTLOOK 

     DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1049 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012          VALID 181630Z - 191200Z          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WI AND MI...          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SD AND     NORTHERN NEB...          ...WI/MI...     A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT TODAY OVER MOST OF THE     CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE PRIMARY BAND OF     WESTERLIES ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE     NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH     IS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA/MN.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK     EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WI/UPPER MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND     EVENING.  MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY AN OVERNIGHT MCS     NOW OVER LOWER MI.  HOWEVER...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW LOW LEVEL     MOISTURE RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS WI WITH UPPER 60S     DEWPOINTS NOW INTO THE RHI AREA.  CLOUDS WILL SLOW HEATING/     DESTABILIZATION IN THIS REGION...BUT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD     REACH 2000 J/KG WITH ONLY WEAK CAPPING REMAINING.          PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY THIS     AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI AS THE TAIL-END OF THE LARGE     SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTS THE REGION.      MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL     PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING     WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THESE STORMS ARE     EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF UPPER MI AND LAKE MI     DURING THE EVENING.  AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS LESS CERTAIN     FARTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI SO WILL NOT EXTEND HIGHER SEVERE     PROBABILITIES INTO THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.          ...SD/MN TONIGHT...     MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS     EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION     AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SD AND NORTHERN     NEB...LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL FORECAST     SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE CAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS     CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.          ...OH VALLEY...     A PLUME OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OH     VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.  BROKEN CLOUDS WILL SOMEWHAT     HINDER DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED     FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WEAK MID LEVEL     WINDS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...BUT ISOLATED CELLS MAY     PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.          ..HART/MOSIER.. 06/18/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1620Z (11:20AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME