THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL SD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

TORNADO OUTLOOK 

WIND OUTLOOK 

HAIL OUTLOOK 

     DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0753 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012          VALID 291300Z - 301200Z          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL SD TO THE MID     ATLANTIC STATES...          ...SYNOPSIS...          THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE     NRN TIER OF STATES...TO THE N OF AN ELONGATED MIDLEVEL RIDGE     EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN DESERTS TO SERN U.S.  WITHIN THIS     SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW REGIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN ONTARIO/WRN     QUEBEC WILL PROGRESS ENEWD INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM     ATTENDED BY A  BELT OF 50-60 KT FLOW AT 500 MB FROM THE GREAT LAKES     THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN SD     WILL PROGRESS ESEWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST WHILE AN MCV OVER S-CNTRL NEB     MOVES THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY.  IN THE LOWER     LATITUDES...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WWD ACROSS SRN TX.          AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL QUEBEC INTO THE     LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE     SETTLING MORE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  THIS     BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM OH WNWWD THROUGH IA/NEB     TO LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING EWD/SEWD THROUGH     THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  FARTHER SOUTH...A THERMAL LOW WILL DEVELOP BY     AFTERNOON OVER WRN KS WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SRN     HIGH PLAINS.            ...NRN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST...          LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO     EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN STORM EVOLUTION INVOF     QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  AS OF 12Z...RADAR AND     LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE ELEVATED TSTMS ONGOING FROM WRN SD ESEWD     THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF IL/IND.  DCVA ATTENDANT TO     ABOVE-MENTIONED NRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY AIDING     WRN SD STORMS WHILE LOW-LEVEL WAA APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY     MECHANISM FORCING REMAINDER OF ACTIVITY FROM THE MID MO VALLEY EWD.          12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENT ALONG STATIONARY     BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF     AROUND 17 G/KG AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9 C/KM WHICH     WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON     WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 4000-5000+ J/KG.  AS MENTIONED     ABOVE...SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN     UNCLEAR...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS MAY     DEVELOP AND GROW UPSCALE INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING SYSTEMS /POSSIBLE     BOW ECHOES/ WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SPREADING     SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.          ...NEW ENGLAND...          A GRADUALLY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME     HEATING AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES TO YIELD A MODERATELY     UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE     VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG.  UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT WILL     BE AUGMENTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED     IN THE SYNOPSIS TO FOSTER SCATTERED TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY     ACROSS ME.  THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A STRENGTHENING     WLY WIND FIELD WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KT.  AS     SUCH...SETUP WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND/OR LINE     SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY     SEVERE HAIL.          ..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 06/29/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1320Z (8:20AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME