CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
TORNADO OUTLOOK
WIND OUTLOOK
HAIL OUTLOOK
SPC AC 071626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT THU JUN 07 2012 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD INTO ERN CO... ...NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD FROM CENTRAL MT SWD INTO WRN WY...WITH A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ATTM. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF NERN WY IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WITH A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER REGION...AND A WEAK FRONT TRAILING SSWWD ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL CO. A DENVER CYCLONE/CONVERGENCE ZONE IS APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DATA AND THIS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL REGIONS OF THICKER CLOUD COVER FROM NERN CO NNEWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS...AND THESE WILL MODULATE DIABATIC HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH LARGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ EXPECTED WITHIN REGIONS WHERE REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND GREATER HEATING ARE ABLE TO OCCUR. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE INTO NERN CO. ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR /ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AND CENTRAL ND/ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH STRONGER CELLS OVER THE RISK AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER PARTS OF NERN CO INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER PLAINS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03-6Z IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND STABILIZATION. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO -18C AT 500MB/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG. RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SEVERAL MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ...SOUTH TEXAS... A WEAK AND CONVECTIVELY AIDED UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTH TX. RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS IN SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND AMPLE CAPE...WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COMPOSITE BOUNDARY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ALONG A RKP-HDO-ECY LINE. THE WRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SWD IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCING OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER CENTRAL TX. ..WEISS/COHEN.. 06/07/2012 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1633Z (11:33AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 
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