STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN INDIANA, EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OHIO, SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, AND NORTHERN KANSAS FOR TOMORROW

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK 

     DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1230 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012          VALID 281200Z - 291200Z          ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...          ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...          DOMINANT UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE     DAY2 PERIOD WITH FLATTENING EXPECTED NEAR THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER     AS MB/ON SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE AND BEGINS TO DIGS SEWD     LATE IN THE PERIOD.  VERY WARM EML HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE     COUNTRY AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY PROVE HOSTILE TOWARDS DEEP     CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ORGANIZED ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION.  ONE     EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME     WHICH HAS BEEN DISPLACED UNUSUALLY FAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT     LAKES/OH VALLEY.  GIVEN THE VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IT     APPEARS SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP AS     CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE REACHED AHEAD OF THE COLD     FRONT.  FOR SFC PARCELS TO FREELY CONVECT READINGS WILL NEED TO RISE     WELL ABOVE 100F.  ADDITIONALLY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO     AGGRESSIVE REGARDING FORECAST SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AHEAD OF     THE WIND SHIFT.  EVEN SO...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT FRONTAL     ASCENT/WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ENCOURAGE POST-FRONTAL     ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT COULD ATTAIN ROBUST LEVELS GIVEN THE STEEP     LAPSE RATES.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER     GREAT LAKES AFTER DARK WITH SUBSEQUENT SEWD MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT     ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF STRONG EML THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO     PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA BY MORNING.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE EXPANDED 5%     SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG ELEVATED TSTMS DURING THE LATTER     HALF OF THE PERIOD.          ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...          VERY WARM EML WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE REASON TO     BELIEVE THERMAL PROFILES WILL COOL APPRECIABLY.  GIVEN THE OBSERVED     MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE     REQUIRED TO FORCE SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY.      HAVE ADJUSTED THE 5% SEVERE PROBS SWD TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE AFTERNOON     FRONTAL POSITION ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WWD ALONG THE KS/NEB     BORDER AT PEAK HEATING.  ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE WIND SHIFT     WILL BE HIGH BASED AND POSE PRIMARILY A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND     THREAT.          ..DARROW.. 06/27/2012          CLICK TO GET