Friday, June 1, 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 335





   SEL5          URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 335     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     225 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012          THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF                  SOUTHWEST KANSAS            NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO            WESTERN OKLAHOMA            TEXAS PANHANDLE          EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL     1000 PM CDT.          HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75     MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.          THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80     STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH     SOUTHWEST OF RATON NEW MEXICO TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE     OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE     ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).          REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE     FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH     AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR     THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS     AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY     DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.          OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 332...WW 333...WW 334...          DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK     FRONT/WIND SHIFT SPREADING SEWD FROM CO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL     STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SERN CO AND NERN NM     AND TRACK SEWD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE     ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONT BACKED INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL     CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD FUEL THE DEVELOPING     TSTMS. MID LEVEL FEATURES SUPPORTING STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT     ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN NONDESCRIPT. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE REGION     LIES BENEATH THE SWRN FLANK OF STRONGER NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW     WHICH...ATOP LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR     AROUND 50KT. THUS KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC REGIME WILL BE MORE     THAN ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION. PRIMARY SEVERE     IMPACTS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS A HAIL FEW REPORTS AOA 2     INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE     FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP NEAR/ALONG WIND     SHIFT/OUTFLOW SITUATED FROM WRN OK INTO SWRN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL     SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LACK OF GREATER     LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS     SHOULD KEEP TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED.          AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT     TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65     KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM     MOTION VECTOR 33030. 

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