MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 142014Z - 142115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES NWD INTO FAR SERN CO AND FAR SWRN KS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER TO THE W OF LBB...AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OUT OF NRN MEXICO. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL AS CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FARTHER N...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP DEEPEN A SFC LOW LOCATED ACROSS SERN CO/SWRN KS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN NM HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING. ELY STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO PROGRESS INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /19Z MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUE AOA 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA/. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND THIS COULD HELP AID IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS INTENSIFY ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/14/2012 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB... LAT...LON 32810218 33280294 36270299 38190275 38320110 36900103 36410111 33210119 32810218
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