MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276, AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH CNTRL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0435 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH CNTRL MT          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE           VALID 252135Z - 252300Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT          SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS     THEY MOVE NWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT.     SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING     WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.          DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING ELY LOW LEVEL POST FRONTAL WINDS     HAVE ADVECTED LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WWD THROUGH MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL MT     BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF     1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION     INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN/CNTRL THROUGH WRN MT...AND     HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. NWRN FRINGE OF     UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY A NNEWD EJECTING SPEED MAX     WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS INDICATED OVER WRN AND CNTRL MT.     TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S NE OF THE     HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE CAP IS SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR STORMS TO     DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ONCE INITIATED...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-50     KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH WILL LIKELY SURVIVE AND     INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.          ..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/25/2012               ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...MSO...          LAT...LON   48891371 48800984 48410610 47020598 47330980 48011304                 48891371