MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TO NORTHWEST OK AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 202345Z - 210115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP/INCREASE WITHIN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST OK AND THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE A SEVERE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AN INCREASE/THICKENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU INCLUDING SOME TOWERS/INCIPIENT ANVILS HAS BEEN NOTED SINCE 2230Z SOUTHWEST OF AN ONGOING SEVERE TSTM NEAR RUSSELL KS AS OF 2330Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR RUSSELL KS TO NEAR DODGE CITY/LIBERAL KS AND INTO THE OK PANHANDLE NEAR GUYMON AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. ACCORDINGLY...IT APPEARS THAT NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS SHARPENED TO A DEGREE OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS...AND VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTIVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS NEAR-FRONTAL AXIS THROUGH THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME. NEITHER VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT VEERING PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /2000-2500 PER KG MLCAPE/ MAY ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND SOME BRIEF/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. SCENARIO MAY PROVE TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/20/2012 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 38949904 38299843 37199863 36399935 36100166 36590279 36920101 38129950 38949904
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